The Case for a Progressive Agenda
Opinion, Fred Stoll, Nov. 21, 2019 (updated 3/3/2020)
The Question for 2020. It is wrong to frame the 2020 Democratic presidential race in terms of Who can beat Trump?
A lot of candidates can probably do that. The real question, appropriate to the very serious and urgent challenges we face, is, What national Democratic platform can win a decisive majority in the White House and both houses of Congress?
I don’t really care about the first question, because we are so screwed if can’t answer the second question.
The Failing National Democratic Party. Many voices are saying that a moderate Democrat is best suited to address the first question. The problem is with the second question. For the last 40 years, moderate Democrats have led a party which, at the national level, has been a losing party. Consider these statistics:
- • Democrats have held the Presidency for 4 of the last 10 terms compared to 6 for Republicans
- • Democrats have controlled the Senate only 8 of the last 20 terms compared to 11 for Republicans (one term was back and forth)
- • Democrats have simultaneously controlled the House, Senate, and White House for only 4 of last 40 years compared to 8 for Republicans
- • Democratic presidents have appointed only 4 of the last 18 Supreme Court justices compared to 14 for Republicans
In this 2-party tug-of-war, Democrats have occasionally managed to gain a few inches, but all-in-all have been getting dragged into the mud. Based on this 40-year track record, a moderate Democratic agenda can be expected to continue this trend of inadequacy and ineffectiveness, possibly winning 2 years of unified government in reaction to Trump, and then once again losing one or the other houses of congress.
The Need for an Overwhelming Majority in National Government. We need a national party platform commensurate with the ever-worsening crises we face: economic inequality unknown in a century, and a climate crisis unknown in human history. We need an overwhelming majority in congress, sufficient to pass major legislation. Without this, we will leave many millions of people in ever-worsening economic misery, and slide further toward severe and irreversible global climate change.
The Economically Downtrodden Majority. So how do we get this super-majority? IT’S THE MIDDLE CLASS!
The economic decline of the middle class since 1980 has been so extreme that it’s hard to fully comprehend. Consider some economic statistics from 2018 compared to 1980, expressed in 2018 dollar values:
- • Median (50th percentile) household income has gone up by 23% (to $63,200/year). Sounds good, but:
- • Average house price has increased by 73% (to $316,000)
- • Average unfurnished apartment rent has increased by 69% (to $19,100/year)
- • Average per-capita healthcare costs have increased by 226% (to $10,500 per year)
- • College costs have skyrocketed, for example average in-state cost of public college including room and board has increased by 115% (to $17,200/year)
- • Further down the income spectrum, household income at the 30th percentile has decreased by 9%, and the minimum wage was reduced by 27%
- • Federal debt has ballooned to over $60,000 per capita, providing the political right with a
justification
for proposing cuts to social services on which retirees and the working poor depend
These aren’t just numbers, there are people behind them. There are many millions of people who are living far below the standard of living of their parents, who have to work more than one job, who have taken on crushing student-loan debt, who have to choose between medical care, food, and rent, whose marriages or relationships fail under the stress, who suffer stress-related illness, who take refuge in drugs or alcohol, who contemplate or attempt suicide, who feel shame for their situations, who feel afraid for their futures. Trump successfully leveraged this widespread economic despair in 2016 by fomenting nationalist fervor, xenophobia, and racism.
Winning and Serving a Super-Majority. But this large population can be approached to create a super-majority with a progressive platform of bold governmental policies that will actually improve millions of lives, in contrast to Trump’s empty promises and the ambiguous proposals of moderate Democrats. Ideas such as Medicare for All, minimum basic income, student loan forgiveness, free college tuition, and free childcare for working parents, should no longer be considered as radical – they are necessary to give lives of decency to the many millions of people whom the markets have failed. This includes many African American populations which have perpetually suffered economically in the U.S. due to the legacies of racism and institutional discrimination and marginalization.
Moderate proposals for a little tweaking around the edges will neither fix our enormous problems, nor provide the compelling agenda needed for a supermajority in congress. Bernie Sanders’ 2016 progressive agenda resonated with many in the besieged middle class; that’s why 12% of his primary supporters ended up voting for Trump (believing his lies), rather than supporting the moderate and vague promises of the Democratic nominee, Clinton. A bold, well-communicated, progressive agenda that directly addresses the challenges faced by the economically distressed would resonate with many current Trump supporters, and drive large voter turnout among people of color.
Contact me at: fcstoll99 at gmail dot com